Global risk foresight and impacts on Thailand

A study on “Global risk foresight and impacts on Thailand” has been jointly conducted by The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) of Chulalongkorn University and APEC CTF in order to attain information for the preparation of The 11th National Economic and Social Development Plan. Real-time Delphi survey has been employed in this study to gather experts’ opinion. A total of 57 participants were selected from various sectors ranging from government, academics, business, politics and NGO. The survey comprises 28 statements with 5 aspects i.e. social, technology, economics, environment and geopolitics. For each statement, there are 4 topics to be asked including:

  • Likelihood of the risk to occur
  • Significance of the risk to impact on the goal of the 11th plan
  • Manageability on the risk
  • Additional description on the risk

Scenario Planning workshop with 48 participants was conducted thereafter. There were 4 scenarios built namely Magic Land, Sansab Canal, Suffocated Dragon and City of Angels.

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The final report of the study was submitted to the NESDB in June 2010 as a part of fundamental information for the formulation of The 11th National development Plan (2012–2017).